Date: Tue, 30 Dec 2003 06:24:46 -0500 (EST)
From: batz <batsy(a)vapour.net>
Subject: 2004 network predictions.
Here are some dire predictions for 2004.
While it would be easy to say that the world will end,
I think these are all things that reasonably could happen,
and we could act pre-emptively to mitigate their effects.
- Virus infections of handhelds and mobile phones
causing widespread problems for cell networks
similar to worms that flood out IP networks.
- Bonus points for a bluetooth infection vector.
- Extra bonus points if it floods newly minted
VoIP telecom networks. Grim.
- E-mail whitelist technology gains mainstream acceptance
as spam hits critical mass. Spam recieved by astronauts
- ISP's search for new business models realizing that wireless
providers are making a mint charging by the kilobyte, and more
users just surf at work.
- Wireless network "terrorism" or "porn" incident galvanizes
legislators to force hotspot operators to get ID or credit
card numbers from customers.
- Really Bad instant-messenger worm that we can't do anything
about because it doesn't use consistant tcp/udp ports.
- ISP's use managed anti-virus/security to sell new managed services
to users. Birth of the fully provider managed home PC?
- Affinity networks/six-degrees site privacy boondoggle.
One is caught selling access data to airlines or
transport security or something. Everyone feels sick
as Friendster acquired by Equifax?
- Private crypted networks used for P2P. Call them blacknets,
darknets, or in true arrr-pirate fashion, booty-nets.
- Successful virtual worm network forged after a
worm spreads its second phase and installs an onion
routed virtual network. Maybe a new P2P network?
- Linux kernel made illegal, somewhere, for a minute.
Presidential candidate may admit to using it once,
but didn't look at the source. RIAA/MPAA/DMCA a
surprise US election issue.
- LEA access to ISP's formalized, spearheaded by
Cisco and its "lawful interception" capability.
Court gag order placed on participating ISP's,
disgruntled admin leaks details to Cryptome or
- More end-to-end control connections that
identify/validate/authenticate end users. Eg,
VPN's, SSL, PPP. An assault on anonymity and
stateless protocols, or technologies that interrupt
the statefulness of the connection between user and
their primary providers. (eg, WiFi, P2P, UDP, VoIP).
- P2P on the road to obselescence caused by higher metred
bandwidth charges to home cable users in line with
wireless costs. While there is a glut of bandwidth
capacity available for transit, this is not the case
for end-user consumption. Cable providers will lower
bandwidth caps under the auspices of combatting piracy,
enabling them to actually make money.
Given these sort of predictions, I don't mind
being wrong. Have a good year, I'll post again