On 25/01/2015 8:52 AM, "Brian E Carpenter" <brian.e.carpenter@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> On 25/01/2015 08:11, Peter Lambrechtsen wrote:
> > My personal view is I personally doubt there will be much movement for the
> > next 5+ years or even more unless the "killer v6" app comes out or
> > something major happens like Facebook only supporting v6 from a certain
> > date. There are fairly simple reasons why.
>
> There is no IPv6 killer app, why would there be? The question is when
> will operational convenience argue for v6. The large wireless carriers
> in the US are beginning to see that now, and eventually when that
> becomes standard practice (with IPv4 traffic treated as legacy carried
> over IPv6 infrastructure) the economics will shift here too, simply
> because products evolve in that direction.
>
> > Most ISPs have plenty of spare address space and the retail fixed broadband
> > market is pretty static.
> > Even the new players like bigpipe and myrepublic have managed to get v4
> > address space. And those two didn't launch with a dual stack. Why was
> > that???
> > It's been shown that even the new players can survive with CGNat in the
> > days of Section 92 without needing to log everything I presume.
> >
> > In the mobile space I can see it happening. But at the same time CGNat
> > seems to be working for them too.
>
> That isn't what I hear from the seriously large carriers elsewhere
> in the world.

I am specifically talking about NZ as that is where the complaints are on the uptake of v6 by fixed broadband retail proviers. Where the scarcity of v4 doesn't apply as we have a small already saturated fixed Internet market.

I can see it happening soon in NZ in the mobile space due to the rapid expansion of mobile devices and that all new devices are v6 compliant. Not so much in fixed broadband.

>
> > Adding v6 you now need to think about how big the prefix you want to
> > allocate to your customers. Probably a /64 will be fine for 98% of your
> > customers but some geeks may want something larger for various reasons.
>
> That's a very short-sighted approach. Firstly, there's no shortage.
> Secondly, recommendations and industry practice are all in the /48
> to /56 range. Thirdly, the day that multi-router home networks appear,
> which is unpredictable but not so far ahead, a /64 isn't enough.

I think it will need to wash out for a few years yet. But my bet would be sub 1% of customers would need more than a /64.

Just went through a process of moving from sticky ip to truely dynamic ip for our customers. After months of migrations less than 0.01% of our customers noticed the change. And that was with 95%+ recovering in 15 mins.

So considered the number of people who care about a static vs those who care about v6.....

>
> > Now that every device is addressable and no NAT involved it's a non trivial
> > conversation about securing the customers network and / or making sure you
> > have a capable firewall to only allow acknowledged connections.
>
> Correct. A next-gen SOHO gateway will have to do that. Since NZ buys these
> boxes in, it's going to happen here as soon as it happens in the major
> economies.
>
> > Companies like SNAP have now gone and switched off their v6 stack from non
> > trivial issues. So we should really ask them why they turned it off. As
> > that would really point to why the uptake has been so low.
>
> Well, it would help if their helpdesk was willing to talk in anything but
> baby talk about the issues. What I've been seeing is problems with any
> site accessed via Cloudflare (Sydney), and it looks like MTU or MSS size
> problems and possibly dropped ICMPv6 packets. I suspect there's a tunnel
> in there somewhere and probably a firewall misconfigured for ICMPv6
> filtering, but it's hard to tell. There were also IPv6 serious problems
> with Google for a few days recently, not specific to SNAP. If they gave
> out a bit more information, it might make diagnosis and fix a bit easier.

I would be asking hard questions of my isp.. as the 2nd hand story I heard was rather interesting.

Anyone from snap care to comment?

>
> > For the vast majority of broadband customers they just want to plug the
> > modem in and it work. How is v6 going to have any impact on what they do?
>
> Hopefully, none. My wife didn't even know she was using IPv6 until
> the recent batch of problems with the SNAP service.

And the reverse argument it true as well I suspect she didn't notice when she went back to a pure v4 stack.

> > So my real question is. Where is the demand to uplift the whole
> > provisioning, support and billing to support v6 where there isn't the
> > demand in this country where wages on average and technology demands are
> > low.
>
> I could ask the same about UFB. All I can say is: get ready, so that when
> the economics shift towards IPv6 as the primary service and IPv4 as the
> legacy service, you don't get caught napping. That shift will come
> from outside NZ.

I agree here with ufb. The same /similar reason applies to the slow uptake.

But when core infrastructure proviers or companies like Facebook warn about going pure v6... then the shift will occur.

If DNS requests by volume are anything to judge by... I think the demands from customers to move to v6 here will be a slow one.

The move internationally by large isps is primarily driven from lack of v4 to hand out to their customers. That problem doesn't exist here. Unless we suddenly had a population growth of 1+mil. It's not going to be a problem soon.

>
>     Brian
>
> >  On 25/01/2015 1:18 AM, "Sebastian Castro" <sebastian@nzrs.net.nz> wrote:
> >
> >>
> >>
> >> On 24/01/15 11:54 pm, Jethro Carr wrote:
> >>> Thanks for putting this together Lindsay.
> >>>
> >>> Anyone aware of a simular resource listing IPv6 for NZ’s major websites?
> >> I found some metrics and materials on http://www.ipv6.org.nz/, but
> >> they’re a bit dated (2013) and focus more on the volumes, rather than a
> >> list of NZ sites with/without IPv6. Ideally something like
> >> https://httpswatch.nz/ for IPv6 would be fantastic :-)
> >>
> >> As part of NZRS' research efforts, the regular .nz zone scan checks if a
> >> given domain name has nameservers, mail servers and web server with an
> >> IPv6 address.
> >>
> >> The attached image shows the status up to October 2014, and we have data
> >> up to December 2014 when the last scan ran.
> >>
> >> Cheers,
> >>
> >>>
> >>> regards,
> >>> Jethro
> >>>
> >>> --
> >>> Jethro Carr
> >>> www.jethrocarr.com
> >>>
> >>> On 24 January 2015 at 16:35:56, Lindsay Hill (lindsay.k.hill@gmail.com)
> >> wrote:
> >>>> After last year's IPv6 issues, I was wondering what the status is of
> >> IPv6
> >>>> support across NZ ISPs. I couldn't find that data in any one place, so
> >> I've
> >>>> been pulling it together myself, into a Google Sheet:
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KmhVGN_vPzerUzhpya8lBxdgHc1rCyuWIsYFNdW8wJU/edit?usp=sharing
> >>>>
> >>>> This is primarily focused around residential ISPs, and the status of
> >> their
> >>>> IPv6 support for 'regular' customers. I'm interested in three things:
> >>>>
> >>>> * Is IPv6 supported - fully or trial?
> >>>> * What prefix lengths are given to customers
> >>>> * Are static allocations available?"
> >>>>
> >>>> I've got data on 11 ISPs so far, with requests out for another 3. This
> >>>> covers the majority of end-user connections in NZ. There are of course
> >> many
> >>>> more niche ISPs, and I'm happy to add their info. You can see that
> >> support
> >>>> is generally poor, which is probably why Google says we're only doing
> >> ~0.6%
> >>>> IPv6 traffic.
> >>>>
> >>>> Comments + Updates welcome. Once I've got a bit more data, this will
> >>>> probably go into a more permanent home. If we get enough data, we could
> >>>> break out into residential vs business vs co-location IPv6 support.
> >>>>
> >>>> I am aware of at least a couple of ISPs that are doing IPv6 trials, and
> >>>> when they go live, it will significantly shift the overall IPv6
> >> penetration
> >>>> rate in NZ. But those trials are still mostly internal only, and you can
> >>>> only get on them if you know the right people. If the regular public
> >> can't
> >>>> get onto those trials, then I think they should be listed as
> >> "Unsupported"
> >>>> - too many ISPs have made noises about running trials years ago, but
> >> never
> >>>> got around to actually launching. You know who you are.
> >>>> _______________________________________________
> >>>> NZNOG mailing list
> >>>> NZNOG@list.waikato.ac.nz
> >>>> http://list.waikato.ac.nz/mailman/listinfo/nznog
> >>>>
> >>>
> >>> _______________________________________________
> >>> NZNOG mailing list
> >>> NZNOG@list.waikato.ac.nz
> >>> http://list.waikato.ac.nz/mailman/listinfo/nznog
> >>>
> >>
> >> --
> >> Sebastian Castro
> >> Technical Research Manager
> >> .nz Registry Services (New Zealand Domain Name Registry Limited)
> >> desk: +64 4 495 2337
> >> mobile: +64 21 400535
> >>
> >> _______________________________________________
> >> NZNOG mailing list
> >> NZNOG@list.waikato.ac.nz
> >> http://list.waikato.ac.nz/mailman/listinfo/nznog
> >>
> >>
> >
> >
> >
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