Thanks Matthew - I guess :-)
The presentation is at http://www.potaroo.net/presentations/2010-03-04-bgp2009.pdf
The quick version is:
a. table size
- the growth in IPv4 is informally around 10% per year
- the growth in IPv6 is informally around 50% per year, but even so the 4 year projection
makes the routing table grow from 2,400 entries in Jan 2010 to 8,600 by the start of
- given the considerations of Moore's law and the considerations of memory size, speed
and cost, and power budgets, Tony Li's 2006 hypothesis that as long as route table
growth stayed under around a factor of 1.2 per year the unit cost of routing could remain
constant or even fall, then these figures are not in and of themselves cause for alarm
- the fact that in a couple of years we run out of more IPv4 means that all these
predictions become nonsense at that time! I have absolutely no idea what will happen.
b. update rate
- Oddly enough the level of dynamic updates in BGP is constant. this is really strange.
- the distribution of updates appears to correlate to network topology. This is not so
- There are a small number of "flappers". If you don't know who you are,
look for your network name at http://bgpupdates.potaroo.net/instability/bgpupd.html
yourself yourself listed there, stop it.
- we can sustain BGP growth for a very long time yet - BUT only if:
-- addresses are aggregatable
-- local exchanges and local connectivity continue to keep the network densely
-- IPv4 lasts forever
On 11/03/2010, at 12:43 PM, Matthew Moyle-Croft wrote:
On 11/03/2010, at 12:07 PM, Brian E Carpenter wrote:
I'm looking for the wonderful dramatic
improvement in BGP4 scaling
to go with it...
A bad man would cc Geoff Huston in at this point to introduce his findings he presented
last week at APNIC/APRICOT about BGP4 and how well it's scaled.
Hey, look it's Geoff cc'ed in ...
On 2010-03-11 14:13, Terry Manderson wrote:
Apologies for the cross posting, but I thought many of you might find this interesting.
I've bee watching the IPv6 allocation stats with some interest given the
implementation of the APNIC policy proposal "prop-073: Simplifying
allocation/assignment of IPv6 to APNIC members with existing IPv4 addresses"
(authored by Andy Linton and myself) hit the streets in February.
Pursuant to the policy recommendations APNIC have made some effort to spread the word and
have badged the effort "Kickstart IPv6".
Attached is a chart of the 'by month allocation count' since 2005..
You should note that there were 194 allocations/assignments made in ALL of 2009.. So far
in 2010 there have been 190 allocations/assignments made..
So.. do you have your v6 allocation yet?
.. and the next question, when are you going to route it and use it...
I'll be happily watching the v6 routing table :-)
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